Migration Meltdown: Why Californians are No Longer Moving to Arizona

I've seen a lot of growth since I moved to Arizona more than three decades ago. After the pandemic, everyone was ready for a change. It seemed as though the population of my town swelled more than ever before.

It looks like those trends are not only tapering off, but they may be reversing. Here's why.

Why Were So Many People Moving to Arizona?

In the last ten years, we've become a national hot spot, and for most of the past decade, Arizona was a magnet. Arizona became an attractive place to live because of the weather, lower housing costs, especially compared to California, and job growth. The Arizona lifestyle felt both affordable and spacious.

In 2022 alone, according to the Office of the University Economist at Arizona State University, the state gained more than 81,000 new residents through interstate migration, making Arizona 4th in the nation for net inflow.

Our largest city, Phoenix, grew quickly. The city added 195,000 people from 2020 to 2023, a 4% jump, four times the national rate, as reported by Axios.com.

There were many reasons the relocation trend took off: remote work meant you could live anywhere, retirees seeking warm weather, and Californians fleeing their state's skyrocketing high costs all contributed to the influx of new residents.

READ: California and Other States Moving to Arizona

Why Is That Trend Reversing Now?

The tide is beginning to shift. According to Atlas Van Lines’ 2025 migration study, more people moved out of Arizona than into it between late 2024 and late 2025.

So, what's pushing this new trend? Affordability.

Home prices in Phoenix have escalated sharply, and the cost of living no longer feels like a bargain. The U.S. Census Bureau also notes that overall, Americans are moving less due to high housing costs and the “lock‑in effect.” Essentially, that means people have opted to stay put because they don’t want to give up low mortgage rates.

The slowdown is hitting Arizona right in the wallet.

Where Are People Moving Now?

With fewer people flocking to Arizona, where are they going? Right now, the hottest places to move to include Arkansas, Idaho, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabama.

These places offer the same things Arizona once did: lower prices, job growth, and room to breathe. On the flip side, Arizona is now at number 6 on the outbound list, joining states like Louisiana and West Virginia for more residents leaving than moving in.

RELATED: The Impact of the Migration from California to Arizona

So Is Arizona Losing More People Than It’s Gaining?

Right now, Arizona is losing more citizens than it's gaining. Atlas Van Lines shows Arizona as outbound in 2025.

Migration into Arizona hasn’t collapsed, and Phoenix is still growing overall. However, the easy, rapid inflow of the past few years has cooled as people are beginning to look elsewhere for an affordable lifestyle.